Today we publish our new report:
When Ministers introduced VAT on private school fees, they assured parents, schools and Parliament that disruption would be limited, the impact would be modest and relatively few pupils would leave the sector.
We were told concerns about school closures and wider consequences were exaggerated.
Eighteen months on, enough evidence now exists to test those claims.
This report compares the forecasts used to justify the policy with the outcomes that have actually followed.
The findings are stark.
The reduction in mainstream independent school pupils has already exceeded the Government’s long-term forecast.
Large school closures are running substantially above historic levels.
Estimated state-sector costs derived using the Government’s own assumptions now exceed the Government’s projected peak.
The central forecast underpinning the policy did not match reality. Everything else follows from that.
No sensible government taxes education. Itโs time this policy was reconsidered.
Read the report yourself here.
Education Not Taxation 